Shift from Democracy to Populism in South Asia

Abstract

This article explores the purported shift from democracy to populism across contemporary South Asia. Using longitudinal data from V-Dem Institute, Freedom House and the Economist Intelligence Unit (2010–2024) it analyzes whether South Asia has encountered a statistically significant democratic backsliding coinciding with the rise of populist leaders in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. However on three grounds this article challenges the simple "shift from democracy to populism" narrative i.e. first, democracies in Southern Asia were never consolidated and strengthened liberal democracies but instead flawed electoral democracies with deep deficits, second democratic erosion cannot be attributed solely to populism but rather a symptom and mechanism through which executives have centralized power using ideological rhetoric and third the relationship is bidirectional or operates in both directions whereby democratic deficits create demand for populism and populist governments in turn exacerbate those deficits. Through comparative case analysis of India (Narendra Modi), Pakistan (Imran Khan), Bangladesh (Sheikh Hasina) and Sri Lanka (Gotabaya Rajapaksa) the article identifies four causal mechanisms underpinning the relationship between populism and democratic decline i.e. judicial capture, media intimidation, electoral manipulation and majoritarian exclusion. It concludes that South Asia has shifted not from democracy to populism but from flawed to illiberal democracy functioning as the dominant political logic. Recommendations include institutional insulation, civil society empowerment as well as regional democratic norms.