The Socio-Economic Consequences Of Forced Return: A Comprehensive Case Study Of Afghan Returnees From Pakistan In District Dir Lower

Abstract

From October 2023 to early 2026, around 5.5 million Afghan refugees went back to their home country from Pakistan and Iran. Almost a million of them came back from Pakistan in 2025 alone. This article presents a detailed case study of District Dir Lower, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan—a district that housed some 39,000 registered Afghan refugees prior to their involuntary repatriation. We examine the social and economic ramifications of forced return across eleven domains: economic destitution, health and nutrition, educational disintegration, mental health, unaccompanied minors, human rights infringements, Taliban reintegration strategies, impacts on Pakistan's host communities, social cohesion in Afghanistan, environmental degradation, and internal displacement. We get information from the UNHCR, IOM, UNDP, WHO, the World Bank, district administration, and reports on human rights. The statistics suggest that forced returns from Dir Lower went up a lot from late 2025 to February 2026. This was when the district ordered the swift evacuation of the Chakdara camp, which contained 21,000 people. Almost all of the returnees are poor (90% live on less than $5 a day and 88% are in debt). Their health is terrible (3.7 million children are severely malnourished), their education is falling apart (50,000 minors have been deported), they have severe psychological trauma, and they are victims of widespread human rights abuses like night raids, arbitrary detention, and family separation. It's important to note that 61% of all returnees are under 18, and a large number of them are children who are not with their parents. Pakistan's strategy of forced return is against the concept of non-refoulement in international law. The International Criminal Court has also issued arrest warrants for Taliban commanders for crimes against humanity. Pakistan's local economy is dealing with growing salaries and a lack of workers, while Afghanistan's weak host communities are dealing with a loss of social cohesion and secondary displacement. We contend that coerced repatriation into a failing economy engenders compounded vulnerability—a condition wherein simultaneous deprivations render recovery unattainable. Pakistan must immediately stop forcing PoR cardholders and unaccompanied children to return, and the international community must fully support the UNHCR's $216 million appeal for 2026.